Financial Forecast Profit Risks Skewed to the Downside

IATA Economics www.iata.org/economics 1 June 2012 FINANCIAL FORECAST realize RISKS SKEWED TO THE DOWNSIDE ? Our consider for air phone line labour breads is unchanged in this every quarter update. We continue to look for net post-tax profits for the whole industry to fall from $7.9 one thousand million in 2011 to $3 billion in 2012, which is just 0.5% of revenues. However, twain the regional composition and the risks to the interchange foretaste scram altered. ? Since the live on forecast air travel volumes continue to expand strongly, at an above-trend pace, while air freight volumes declare shown tentative signs of bend up from the lows of late last year. kelvin fuel and fossil oil colour expenses have fallen. We have revised our brent crude oil price forecast in line with the consensus forecast to an clean of $110/b for 2012, down from the previous(prenominal) forecast of $115/b. However, this is non entirely good news. petroleum prices are weaker because of concerns about the Eurozone. We like a shot base our forecast on the markets vox populi that the Eurozone sovereign debt crisis will intensify, alter economic growth in the region further in the second half of this year.

? The regional composition of the forecast has changed significantly, with US and Latin American airlines anticipate to generate more profit this year, offset by bigger losses in atomic number 63 and littler profits in Asia-Pacific. Moreover, risks to our central forecast have move up with turmoil in the Eurozone threatening a banking crisis, of a more larger scale than assumed in the centr al forecast. incomplete can risks to oil pr! ices, from supply disruptions in the position East, be dismissed. These risks to airline profits remain skewed to the downside. -1%0%1%2%3%4%5%200720082009201020112012FEBIT as % revenuesAirline profitability, EBIT marginEurozone calmsCentral forecastOil price spikeEurozone crisisSystem-wide global commercial airlines2009201020112012F2009201020112012FCentral forecastCentral forecastGlobal0.4%4.0%2.9%1.4%-4.615.87.93.0 Regions North...If you want to get a dear essay, order it on our website: BestEssayCheap.com

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